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Magnetopause location is an important prediction of numerical simulations of the magnetosphere, yet the models can err, either under-predicting or over-predicting the motion of the boundary. This study compares results from two of the most widely used magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, the Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry (LFM) model and the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), to data from the GOES 13 and 15 satellites during the geomagnetic storm on 22 June 2015, and to THEMIS A, D, and E during a quiet period on 31 January 2013. The models not only reproduce the magnetopause crossings of the spacecraft during the storm, but they also predict spurious magnetopause motion after the crossings seen in the GOES data. We investigate the possible causes of the over-predictions during the storm and find the following. First, using different ionospheric conductance models does not significantly alter predictions of the magnetopause location. Second, coupling the Rice Convection Model (RCM) to the MHD codes improves the SWMF magnetopause predictions more than it does for the LFM predictions. Third, the SWMF produces a stronger ring current than LFM, both with and without the RCM and regardless of the LFM spatial resolution. During the non-storm event, LFM predicts the THEMIS magnetopause crossings due to the southward interplanetary magnetic field better than the SWMF. Additionally, increasing the LFM spatial grid resolution improves the THEMIS predictions, while increasing the SWMF grid resolutions does not. 

On the bow shock in front of Earth’s magnetosphere flows a current due to the curl of the interplanetary magnetic field across the shock. The closure of this current remains uncertain; it is unknown whether the bow shock current closes with the Chapman-Ferraro current system on the magnetopause, along magnetic field lines into the ionosphere, through the magnetosheath, or some combination thereof. We present simultaneous observations from Magnetosphere Multiscale (MMS), AMPERE, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) during a period of strong B y , weakly negative B z , and very small B x . This IMF orientation should lead to a bow shock current flowing mostly south to north on the shock. AMPERE shows a current poleward of the Region 1 and Region 2 Birkeland currents flowing into the northern polar cap and out of the south, the correct polarity for bow shock current to be closing along open field lines. A southern Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F18 flyover confirms that this current is poleward of the convection reversal boundary. Additionally, we investigate the bow shock current closure for the above-mentioned solar wind conditions using an MHD simulation of the event. We compare the magnitude of the modeled bow shock current due to the IMF B y component to the magnitude of the modeled high-latitude current that corresponds to the real current observed in AMPERE and by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. In the simulation, the current poleward of the Region 1 currents is about 37% as large as the bow shock I z in the northern ionosphere and 60% in the south. We conclude that the evidence points to at least a partial closure of the bow shock current through the ionosphere. 

Abstract During intense geomagnetic storms, the magnetopause can move in as far as geosynchronous orbit, leaving the satellites in that orbit out in the magnetosheath. Spacecraft operators turn to numerical models to predict the response of the magnetopause to solar wind conditions, but the predictions of the models are not always accurate. This study investigates four storms with a magnetopause crossing by at least one GOES satellite, using four magnetohydrodynamic models at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center to simulate the events, and analyzes the results to investigate the reasons for errors in the predictions. Two main reasons can explain most of the erroneous predictions. First, the solar wind input to the simulations often contains features measured near the L1 point that did not eventually arrive at Earth; incorrect predictions during such periods are due to the solar wind input rather than to the models themselves. Second, while the models do well when the primary driver of magnetopause motion is a variation in the solar wind density, they tend to overpredict or underpredict the integrated Birkeland currents and their effects during times of strong negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)B_z, leading to poorer prediction capability. Coupling the MHD codes to a ring current model, when such a coupling is available, generally will improve the predictions but will not always entirely correct them. More work is needed to fully characterize the response of each code under strong southward IMF conditions as it relates to prediction of magnetopause location. 

Models for space weather forecasting will never be complete/valid without accounting for inter-hemispheric asymmetries in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. This whitepaper is a strategic vision for understanding these asymmetries from a global perspective of geospace research and space weather monitoring, including current states, future challenges, and potential solutions. 

This white paper is on the HMCS Firefly mission concept study. Firefly focuses on the global structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the deciphering of the solar cycle, the conditions leading to the explosive activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona as it drives the heliosphere.